SEismic Risk evaluation through integrated use of Geographical Information Systems and Artificial Intelligence techniques


The prototype as a decision support tool


The methodology implemented in the prototype, makes it much closer to a decision support tool rather than to a set of independent codes giving certain outputs.

It is in fact an oriented approach towards seismic risk assessment, addressing the main elements that should be taken into account to leave open the largest amount of alternative mitigation and prevention strategies.

 Because the vulnerability assessment involves not only physical elements, but also systemic links and organisational factors, and it covers not only the immediate impact of the earthquake but also the emergency recovery, it is easier to articulate prevention policies according to available budgets and resources. In order to reduce expected losses, it is possible to take actions regarding various systems by improving their performance at different phases. Various alternative options can be weighed one against the other by decision-makers. The project contributes to improve present seismic risk prevention by setting an advanced mapping methodology to produce seismic hazard and seismic risk maps at the three geographical scales that have been identified: regional, sub-regional, and local.

It also represents a first attempt to integrate tools, codes, and methods for assessing the expected damage which have been originally developed separately one from the other. Besides the attempt for having the different tools integrated in a single system (the computer prototype), new areas of investigation and new approaches to traditional areas have been searched.

It can be suggested, on the ground of the experience gained with this project, that more efforts should be made to achieve real interaction among scientists of various fields as well as between the scientistsí community and the end-users of their research, that is public administrators and decision makers.


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SERGISAI - Contract Number: ENV4-CT96-0279 (DG 12 DTEE)

Project Coordinator: Gaetano Zonno

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